Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 February 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1858Z from Region 2699 (S08E51). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (07 Feb) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 06/1518Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0942Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 077 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 006/005-008/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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