Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 March 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 23/2323Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 24/1151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/2024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1624 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 068 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 015/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 020/025-013/018-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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