Viewing archive of Friday, 1 June 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 01 2300 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 01/1934Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 31/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 31/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2993 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 075 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 075/075/074 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 022/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 019/025-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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