Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 July 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 24/1554Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 24/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
24/0636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 067 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 014/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 014/015-009/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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