Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 August 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug, 28
Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 26/1838Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 26/1227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 26/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5893 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 071 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 012/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 046/078 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 013/016-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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