Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 October 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2018 Oct 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Oct 2018	072	017
15 Oct 2018	072	022
16 Oct 2018	072	014

Bulletin

Alpha region NOAA AR 2724 has produced a B2.3 flare in the past 24 hours. A new alpha region East of AR 2724 was designated as AR 2725. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 35%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The arrival of a high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole was registered by DSCOVR around 13:50 UT on October 13, after a rise in density and Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had marked the arrival of a Corotating Interaction Region. Solar wind speed gradually rose from about 330 km/s to a maximum of about 590 km/s, with current values around 550 km/s. The IMF changed its direction from away from the Sun to towards the Sun, and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 14 nT, with current values around 7 nT. Bz was below -5 nT between about 14:00 and 16:30 UT and between about 20:00 and 21:15 UT on October 13. The solar wind is expected to stay enhanced on October 14 and 15, and to start a gradual descent to nominal conditions on October 16.

Quiet to minor storm geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 5; NOAA Kp between 1 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Both K Dourbes and Kp had one minor storm interval (K = 5) between 15h and 18h UT on October 13, corresponding to a strong negative IMF Bz component. Active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on October 14 and 15 under the continued influence of the high speed stream from a negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, with a chance for minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) intervals. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity (K Dourbes < 4) is expected on October 16, with a chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Oct 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	026 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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