Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 December 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 25/2237Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Dec 069
  Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  004/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/005-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%30%40%

All times in UTC

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