Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 February 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 09/0500Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 09/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/0523Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3750 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet levels on day
two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 070 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 010/012-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1619magnetometer 3AR13889 69Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1202Possible CME 10.11.2024 12:06 UTC Peak M9.49 from AR 13889 flare 13
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/10 | M9.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/09 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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