Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 February 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 13/1412Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 13/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
13/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 555 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 070 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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