Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 February 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 Feb 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Feb 2019	070	012
15 Feb 2019	071	008
16 Feb 2019	071	004

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours, with the X-ray flux remaining below B-class level. The unnumbered sunspot group which emerged yesterday remains small and with a simple magnetic configuration and will soon rotate over the west limb. A returning active region (previously NOAA AR 2733) is expected to rotate onto the visible solar disk, slightly increasing the flaring probability. However, the probability of C-class flares occurring remains very low and quiet conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Over the last 24 hours the solar wind continued to increase steadily from 440 km/s to 530 km/s. The total magnetic field strength showed a general decrease from 9.5 nT to approximately 4.0 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between -6.6 and 6.6 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours due to the continued influence of the solar wind stream associated with the extended southern polar coronal hole, which first crossed the central meridian on the 10th February.

The geomagnetic conditions were largely quiet to unsettled over the last 24 hours, with a short active period from 16-18 UT (K Dourbes index reached 4). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue to be unsettled with the possibility for isolated active periods as the enhanced solar wind associated with the extended southern polar coronal hole is expected to continue to influence the Earth over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Feb 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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