Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 01/2240Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 62290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 069 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 011/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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