Viewing archive of Monday, 22 April 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 22/1925Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (24 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 069 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 005/005-007/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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