Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 May 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 May 08 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 May 2019	080	013
09 May 2019	079	007
10 May 2019	078	026

Bulletin

Catania group 16 (NOAA Active region 2740) became less active and X-ray flux remained below C level throughout the period. Catania group 16 (NOAA Active region 2740) has shrunk and has simplified while Catania group 17 (NOAA Active region 2741) appears unremarkable. X-ray flux is generally expected to remain below C level although an occasional C-flare remains possible.

SoHO LASCO C2 coronagraph data show from 23:12UT May 6 onwards, after a data gap, an asymmetric halo CME associated with the continuous activity in NOAA region 2740. The CME is primarily directed to the North-East but also shows a faint halo front over the South-West. In STEREO A COR2 data its main core becomes visible starting 16:24UT May 6. A projected speed of around 400 km/s from STEREO A perspective has been estimated. Given the halo character a possible arrival at Earth is estimated in the afternoon of May 10. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind was nominal with Solar wind speed dropping to 325 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field was below 4nT with Bz mainly positive lately. The phi angle was in the negative sector. The anticipated weak coronal hole influences could still occur but should be minor. Later, from afternoon May 10 onwards, there is the possibility of the CME passage of the May 6 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-2 and local K Dourbes 0-3) and expected to remain so until afternoon May 10 when geomagnetic storming becomes possible associated with the expected possible CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 023, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 07 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	027 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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