Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 September 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 533 km/s at 25/0228Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
24/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
25/2010Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and active to major storm levels on day
three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 068 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 008/008-016/028-030/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 65% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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