Viewing archive of Monday, 21 October 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 21/0658Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (23 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 064 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 065/065/065 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 007/008-005/005-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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