Viewing archive of Friday, 25 October 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 25/1640Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 069
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  024/032
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  016/022-016/018-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%40%

All times in UTC

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