Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 October 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 31/0633Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/0035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1885 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 071
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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