Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 11/0635Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0218Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 071 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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