Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 15/1634Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/0040Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 071 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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