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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 12/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 781 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 071
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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