Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 February 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Feb 070
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        29 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  011/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%20%

All times in UTC

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