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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 31/1530Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (02 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jul 072
  Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 073/073/071
  90 Day Mean        31 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jul  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  007/008-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%40%25%

All times in UTC

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