Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 27/2051Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 27/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16736 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (28 Sep, 29
Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 074 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 027/038-026/038-020/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 80% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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