Viewing archive of Friday, 2 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 02/0339Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38685 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 072 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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