Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 334 km/s at 17/1124Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
17/1307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 073 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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