Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 November 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2020 Nov 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Nov 2020	099	005
25 Nov 2020	101	005
26 Nov 2020	102	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2785 (Beta) continued to produce C-class flares, including a C4.3 flare at 23:35 UT Nov 23. NOAA AR 2783 (Beta) remained quiet, while NOAA AR 2784, in the northern hemisphere, decayed into a plage region. Another large sunspot (Alpha), numbered as NOAA AR 2786, has rotated onto the disk at S16E65. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA ARs 2785 and 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in response to the high solar wind speed associated with the Coronal Hole (CH) crossing central meridian on Nov 19. It is expected to increase even further during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to continue to be at moderate levels for the next 24 hours before then decreasing.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained elevated but continued to show a declining trend, decreasing from around 550 to 430 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength remained below 4 nT. Bz was mostly negative, with a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi angle continued to be predominantly in the positive sector. The solar wind is expected to continue to show a declining speed for the next 24 hours with possible further enhancements in the solar wind conditions on Nov 26 from the extension to the northern polar CH, which crossed the central meridian on Nov 23.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 0-2 and 0-3, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours with the possibility of an active interval on Nov 26 in response to the predicted possible further enhancements in the solar wind.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 037, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Nov 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	040 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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