Viewing archive of Friday, 25 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 25/0349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1525 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 088 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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