Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 330 km/s at 10/0958Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/1130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 073 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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