Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 13/0405Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 073 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 073/074/075 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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