Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 03/0547Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 03/1546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 074 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 074/072/070 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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