Viewing archive of Monday, 22 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 22/0530Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4050 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Mar, 24 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 080 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 017/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 016/018-013/015-008/058
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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