Viewing archive of Friday, 23 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0252Z from Region 2817 (N18, L=336). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 23/0246Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 19293 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Apr, 26 Apr)
and quiet to major storm levels on day two (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 077 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 011/012-019/025-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 75% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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