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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/0135Z from Region 2816 (S22W65). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr,
27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/2051Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 24/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3082 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Apr) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 079 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 079/078/078 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 013/015-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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