Viewing archive of Friday, 30 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 May, 02
May) and expected to be very low on day three (03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 30/1424Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
30/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1836 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 073 Predicted 01 May-03 May 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 006/008-014/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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