Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0209Z from Region 2824 (N19E65). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 18/0316Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 18/0142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
18/0130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 May, 20 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 May).
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 076 Predicted 19 May-21 May 075/074/073 90 Day Mean 18 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 015/016-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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