Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2136Z from Region 2824 (N21E13). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May,
26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 22/2144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 794 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (25 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (26
May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 079 Predicted 24 May-26 May 079/079/079 90 Day Mean 23 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 006/005-011/008-028/042
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 50% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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