Viewing archive of Friday, 28 May 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 May 28 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 28 May 2021 until 30 May 2021
Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
28 May 2021082009
29 May 2021080008
30 May 2021080004

Bulletin

The Sun has released two C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C7.6 flare produced by beta-gamma region NOAA 2824, peaking at 23:15 UT on May 27. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 80%, while the chance for an M flare is estimated at 15%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 390 km/s and 455 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 440 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 5 and 10 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended intervals. Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually decline on May 28-29.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 28 and 29, with a slight chance for minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes = 5) on May 28. Quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on May 30.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 27 May 2021

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux083
AK Chambon La Forêt014
AK Wingst018
Estimated Ap019
Estimated international sunspot number039 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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