Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 June 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 12/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 078 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 078/077/077 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 008/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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