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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 20/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4546 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 076 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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