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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jul 095
  Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 094/094/094
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  009/012-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%25%30%

All times in UTC

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