Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 18/1050Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/1324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 080 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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