Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul,
24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 22/0137Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/1010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/0958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 233 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 089 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 089/087/085 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 013/018-013/016-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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