Viewing archive of Friday, 3 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 03/1434Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/1019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0849Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1987 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 084 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 082/082/080 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 006/005-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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