Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0115Z from Region 2871 (S28E61). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 18/2215Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
19/1146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 075 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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