Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 October 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Oct 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Oct 2021	091	007
03 Oct 2021	091	007
04 Oct 2021	091	007

Bulletin

Two active regions (ARs) present on the visible solar disk. NOAA AR 2877 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) and 2880 (beta). No C-class flares were observed in the last 24 hours, although they remain possible.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay there in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, it may increase over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours, it may increase over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind data at L1 shows the passage of a magnetic cloud starting at 12:30 UT on 1 October, most likely still related to the CME from 28 September. The orientation of the cloud axis is WNE, meaning positive helicity, right handed chirality, with a source location statistically corresponding to the southern hemisphere (as observed). Magnetic field intensity increased to 13 nt (with positive Bz) and solar wind speed decreased from 520 to 440 km/s. Slow solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 1-4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 029, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	091
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	034 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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