Viewing archive of Monday, 4 October 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Oct 04 1206 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Oct 2021	084	006
05 Oct 2021	084	007
06 Oct 2021	084	007

Bulletin

The solar activity was mostly quiet over the past 24 hours, with the X-ray flux below C-level. The sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 50, NOAA 2877) produced several B-class flares, but is now rotating over the West limb. The sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 54, NOAA 2880) continued to decay and did not show any significant flaring activities. The returning sunspot groups on the East limb (Catania sunspot group 58, NOAA 2882) is unipolar with a magnetic field configuration Alpha does not show any significant flaring activities. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours with a very small chances of C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu and at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently inside a slow solar wind speed regime. The solar wind parameters (as observed by ACE and DSCOVR) showed an ambient background solar wind flow over the past 24 hours: The solar wind speed ranged from 337 km/s to 416 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 5.5 nT with its Bz components fluctuating between -4.2 nT and 3.4 nT. Nominal solar wind regime is expected to persist in the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours: Values of K-Dourbes and NOAA-Kp index between 1 and 3 were registered. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to remain as long as the Earth remains in slow solar wind speed regime.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 030, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	086
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	024 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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