Viewing archive of Monday, 11 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/2302Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 11/0405Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 11/0102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
11/0124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 473 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (14
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 089 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 088/086/084 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 022/030-014/016-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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