Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 October 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Oct 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 13 Oct 2021 until 15 Oct 2021
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
13 Oct 2021084014
14 Oct 2021084020
15 Oct 2021084018

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 40%, with a slight chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron fluence were at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and are both expected to increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours as a response to the ICME which arrived on October 12.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 425 and 510 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 425 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 1 and 15 nT, and has returned to nominal values of about 5 nT around 22h UT on October 12. IMF orientation was variable. Bz was mostly below -5 nT between 12h and 14h UT on October 12, with a minimum of -10 nT. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 13. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on October 13, 14 and 15.

Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 5; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 13, 14 and 15 after the arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, which is expected on October 13.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 016, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2021

Wolf number Catania028
10cm solar flux084
AK Chambon La Forêt///
AK Wingst///
Estimated Ap055
Estimated international sunspot number015 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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