Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and expected to be very low on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 15/0526Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 430 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 084
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 082/080/080
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/008-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%30%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm25%20%35%

All times in UTC

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