Viewing archive of Friday, 12 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 11/2202Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
12/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 895 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 083 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 083/081/081 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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